Sunday, 7 September 2008

Global credit crunch - when did it start in the eyes of the media?

I am writing this with news just announced of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac having been taken into public ownership. Such an event would have seemed inconceivable 12 months ago, but this latest event indicates the ability of the sub-prime crisis to continue to spread out and damage not just financial markets but the "real" economy as well. So how was the story first picked up by the financial media and what are the media and analysts saying was the starting point?

A search on Google News on "start of credit crunch" comes up with the first entry in Moneyweek, 11th July 2007 which had a piece titled "Is this the start of a global credit crunch."

According to Google News, the BBC was using the term a month later, with insights from leading financial analysts.

The Independent on Sunday has a good timeline and a major survey this August looking back to the start of the credit crunch in August 2007, going so far as to name August 9th 2007 and the closing of several funds by BNP Paribas due to sub-prime problems in the US as the starting point.

The BNP Paribas press announcement (English version) announcing the development still reads rather shockingly even with the benefit of hindsight. "The complete evaporation of liquidity in certain market segments of the US securitisation market has made it impossible to value certain assets fairly regardless of their quality or credit rating." Full marks to BNP Paribas for their transparency over the situation at that point - how many banks would have been so honest?

So what did the Financial Times have to say on those events back in August 2007? What is interesting is the potential severity of the situation was understood immediately by the Financial Times and its article the following day seem remarkably prescient. Bear Stearns the month before (July 2007) and then BNP Paribas were the first two markers in a timeline which leads to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Where next?